Highlights

• • Home required fair odds (1.613) are longer than market 1.57 — no value on favorite
• • Away price (2.30) is shorter than the ~2.632 needed for value given our estimate

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies a favorite; price is reasonable given uncertainty
• + Our conservative estimate keeps us protected from overbetting on thin information

Cons

• - Lack of match-specific data creates higher uncertainty around any probability estimate
• - Small difference between market and our estimate means marginal edges could flip with more info

Details

We compare the market prices to a conservative, no-information estimate. The book market implies the home pair (C. Djonov/V. Marysko) has an implied probability of ~63.7% at 1.57, while the away pair is priced at 2.30 (implied ~43.5%). With no external form, surface, injury, or head-to-head data available, we apply a conservative true-win probability of 62.0% for the home side. At that estimate the minimum fair decimal price for value is 1.613, which is slightly longer than the current 1.57. Calculated EV at the current home price (1.57) is negative (≈ -0.027 per unit). The away side at our implied 38.0% win probability requires ~2.632 to be +EV; the current 2.30 is too short. Given both sides show negative expected value versus our conservative probabilities, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No external data on form, surface, injuries, or H2H — we use a conservative estimate
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.57) is ~63.7%, slightly shorter than our 62.0% estimate
• • Away price (2.30) is well below the ~2.632 needed for value at our away probability