Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.25) = 80%; our estimate = 78%
• • Required odds to beat our estimate = 1.282 (market is shorter)

Pros

• + Home is clearly favored which aligns with our probability model
• + Clay surface likely plays to typical baseline/consistency advantages

Cons

• - Market price is too short on the favorite to offer value
• - Insufficient match-specific form or H2H data increases uncertainty

Details

We estimate the home pair's true win probability around 78% on clay given the home favoritism and no contrary injury or surface notes, which implies fair decimal odds of ~1.282. The market price of 1.25 implies an 80.0% probability, leaving no edge for the favorite (EV negative at current odds). The away price (3.75) would require an implausibly high true probability (~26.7%) to be profitable versus our view (~22%), so neither side offers positive expected value based on available information.

Key factors

• • Surface: outdoor clay likely favors established clay players but no specific form data available
• • Market is short on the home side (1.25), implying ~80% market probability
• • Lack of injury, form or H2H data increases uncertainty; we remain conservative in probability estimates