C. Fernandez Sanchez/B. Gonzalez Fernandez vs T. Icardo Alcorisa/M. Ortega Gallego
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With limited information we estimate the home win probability at 75%, lower than the market-implied ~81.3%, so the current home price (1.23) has negative expected value and we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability (1.23) = 81.3%; our estimate = 75%
- • Minimum fair odds to back home at our estimate = 1.333
Pros
- + Home is the clear market favorite, suggesting real strength
- + Short price limits variance on small stakes if one still chooses to play cautiously
Cons
- - Current odds do not offer value versus our conservative probability
- - No available form/injury/H2H data increases uncertainty in any projection
Details
We estimate the home pair C. Fernandez Sanchez/B. Gonzalez Fernandez to be the stronger side, but with no external data available we apply a conservative true-win probability of 75%. The market price (home 1.23) implies ~81.3% probability (1/1.23), which is higher than our conservative estimate, so the offered price is overpriced relative to our view and does not offer positive expected value. The book's implied margin (~6.3%) further compresses value. Given the lack of form, surface, injury, and H2H data, we decline to recommend a side unless odds move to at least 1.333 or better for the home team (or the away price shortens well below our assessed fair value).
Key factors
- • Current market implies ~81.3% for the home fav; our conservative estimate is 75%, so no value
- • No external data on form, surface, injuries, or H2H — we assume conservative uncertainty
- • Bookmaker overround ~6.3% reduces available value at short prices