C. Gannon/D. O'Hare vs Jie Cui/Fajing Sun

Highlights

• • Away implied probability (~82%) appears overconfident given available player data
• • Home price 3.95 > our minimum required 3.03, creating positive EV

Pros

• + Significant positive EV at current market price
• + Market likely underweights doubles-pairing uncertainty and overweights individual singles records

Cons

• - Research lacks doubles-specific form and direct H2H information, increasing forecast uncertainty
• - If the away pairing is an established doubles team (not reflected in provided data), our estimate may be too generous

Details

We view the quoted away price (1.22, implied ~82%) as overstated relative to the limited evidence in the research. The available profiles show Jie Cui and Fajing Sun with solid but not dominant individual records (~57% win rates), mostly in singles and not specifically in established doubles pairings; there is scant information on C. Gannon/D. O'Hare, which increases uncertainty and suggests the market may be compressing the favorite price too tightly. Given that, we estimate the true win probability for the home pair at 33%, which implies fair odds ≈3.03. At the available market price of 3.95, the home side offers positive expected value (EV = 0.3035 per 1 unit). We therefore recommend backing the home team only because current pricing (>3.03) exceeds our minimum required odds and produces a meaningful positive EV. We acknowledge elevated uncertainty due to lack of doubles-specific form and missing data on the home pairing.

Key factors

• • Favorite price (1.22) implies ~82% win chance, which seems high vs. players' moderate individual records
• • Research contains singles-focused stats and lacks clear doubles pairing history for both teams
• • Current market price (3.95) for home exceeds our fair-price threshold (~3.03), producing positive EV