Highlights

• • Market implies ~72.4% for the home side at 1.38
• • Our conservative estimate is 60%, which does not justify a bet at current odds

Pros

• + Home side is priced as a clear favorite, which would be acceptable if supported by stronger data
• + If additional positive info on Lahey or team form appears, the market price could become attractive

Cons

• - Available research shows C. Harrison in weak form and overall poor record
• - No data on the opposing pair or conditions to offset Harrison’s weakness; current odds exceed our probability estimate

Details

We compare the market price to our conservative assessment based only on the supplied research. The market price on the home side (C. Harrison/A. Lahey) is 1.38, which implies a win probability of ~72.4%. The only concrete data provided is a weak recent singles/doubles profile for C. Harrison (10-21 career record, poor recent form), and no meaningful information on Lahey or the opposing pair (A. Brune Olsen/E. McDonald). Given the limited and negative information about a key member of the favorite pair and the absence of corroborating positives for the market-implied level, we estimate the true win probability for the home pairing at 60%. At that estimate the current price is overpriced (market > our probability), so there is no positive expected value on the favorite at 1.38. To find value we would need significantly longer odds on the home side (>=1.667) or additional positive information that raises our probability estimate above ~72%.

Key factors

• • Limited supplied data: only C. Harrison profile available, showing weak recent form
• • Market-implied probability (72.4%) exceeds our conservative true probability estimate (60%)
• • No information on partners or H2H to support the favorite’s high price