C. Naef/K. Von Deichmann vs Gamiz, A/Vedder, E

Highlights

• • Away implied probability: 58.1% (1.72); our estimate: 56.0%
• • Required odds for positive EV on away: >= 1.786; current 1.72 is too short

Pros

• + Market gives a clear favorite, so pricing is transparent
• + We used conservative assumptions given lack of external data

Cons

• - No external data (form, surface, H2H, injuries) increases uncertainty
• - Edge required for a profitable bet is very small and not present at available odds

Details

We compare market prices to a conservative, data-sparse estimate. The market currently prices Gamiz/Vedder (away) at 1.72 (implied 58.1%) and C. Naef/K. Von Deichmann (home) at 2.02 (implied 49.5%). With no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data available, we adopt a cautious estimate that the away team’s true win probability is about 56.0% (0.56). At the quoted 1.72, that implies a negative expected value (EV = 0.56 * 1.72 - 1 = -0.037), so the market appears to slightly overprice the away side relative to our conservative view. The home side would need a true win probability of ~49.5% to be fairly priced at 2.02; we estimate the home team is less likely than that. Because neither side provides positive EV at current widely-available odds, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No external form, injury, surface, or H2H data — conservative baseline assumptions only
• • Market favours Gamiz/Vedder at implied 58.1% — our conservative estimate is 56.0%
• • Small difference between market and our estimated probability yields negative EV at current prices