C. Plakk/A. Roots vs L. Rothensteiner/M. Villet

Highlights

• • Away is a heavy market favorite at 1.07 (implied ~93.5%).
• • Conservative estimated true probability (92%) yields a small negative EV at current odds.

Pros

• + Clear market signaling that the away pair is heavily favored.
• + If one had additional reliable data confirming >93.5% win chance, the price could be marginally exploitable.

Cons

• - No external data available to credibly push our true probability above the break-even threshold.
• - Current price (1.07) is below the min required decimal (1.087) for our conservative estimate, producing negative EV.

Details

We compare the bookmaker prices to a conservative estimated win probability. The away pair is a very heavy favorite at 1.07 (implied ~93.5%), but with no external data on form, surface, injuries, or H2H we adopt a conservative true probability of 92% for the away side. At that estimate the required decimal price to break even is ~1.087, which is slightly above the available 1.07, producing a small negative expected value. The home side at 8.0 would need a true win probability ≥12.5% to be break-even; we judge that far less likely given the market skew. Given the lack of reliable informational edge and the bookmaker margin, we do not find positive value at the posted prices and therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Available market price (away 1.07) implies ~93.5% but bookmaker margin likely reduces edge
• • No external data on form, surface, injuries, or H2H to justify moving probability materially above 92%
• • Break-even decimal for a 92% true probability is ~1.087, higher than current 1.07