C. Aratari/S. Cadar vs B. Dessolis/M. Dessolis

Highlights

• • Implied market probability for the favorite ~84.7%; our conservative true estimate 78%
• • Minimum acceptable decimal for value on the favorite is ~1.282, above the available 1.18

Pros

• + Market consensus clearly identifies a favorite, reducing uncertainty about likely winner
• + If any additional positive intel on the favorite emerges (injury-free, strong form), the market price would be justifiable

Cons

• - Quoted odds for the favorite are too short to provide positive EV versus our conservative probability
• - Lack of match-specific data (surface, recent results, injuries) increases estimation risk

Details

The market prices B. Dessolis/M. Dessolis as a heavy favorite at 1.18 (implied ~84.7%). With no independent research available, we take a conservative approach and estimate the away pair's true win probability at 78% (0.78) to allow margin for unknowns (surface, form, injuries). At that probability the fair decimal price is 1.282; the current price of 1.18 is shorter than our minimum required price, so backing the favorite has negative expected value. Conversely, the underdog would need a true win probability >22.22% to be a value at 4.50; given the favorite’s apparent strength we do not assign the underdog that likelihood. Therefore no side offers positive expected value at the quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Current market strongly favors the away pair (1.18), implying bookmaker confidence
• • No independent data on surface, recent form, head-to-head or injuries—we apply conservative estimates
• • Required fair odds for the favorite (1.282) exceed the available price (1.18), producing negative EV