C. Bosman/D. Cirpanli vs J. Adams/S. Atturu

Highlights

• • Market-implied away probability: ~55.9% (1.79)
• • Our conservative estimated away probability: 53.0% → required odds 1.887 (higher than market)

Pros

• + Conservative approach avoids taking small, likely negative edges
• + Clear math comparing implied vs. estimated probabilities and required odds

Cons

• - High uncertainty due to lack of matchup, surface and form information
• - Potential missed small-value opportunities if additional favorable info exists

Details

With no external data available, we apply a conservative, market-aware estimation. The market currently prices the away pair (J. Adams/S. Atturu) at 1.79 (implied ~55.9%) and the home pair (C. Bosman/D. Cirpanli) at 1.93 (implied ~51.8%), but these include a visible book margin (~7.6%). Given the market lean toward the away side and lack of form/injury/H2H information, we conservatively estimate the away true win probability at 53.0% (0.53) and the home true win probability at 47.0% (0.47). At our estimated probabilities, the minimum fair decimal odds required for the away side to be profitable are 1.887 (1 / 0.53) which is higher than the current 1.79 offered — producing a negative EV. The home side would require ~2.128 (1 / 0.47) while the market offers 1.93, also negative on EV. Because neither side offers positive expected value after accounting for uncertainty and bookmaker margin, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No independent data on form, surface fit, injuries or H2H — we use conservative assumptions
• • Market shows slight favoritism to the away pair but includes a noticeable vig (~7.6%)
• • Doubles matches have higher variance; small edges are unreliable without data