Highlights

• • Away implied probability ~75.8% (no positive EV at our 72% estimate)
• • Insufficient additional data (form/injuries/H2H) to upgrade home probability

Pros

• + Clear market pricing available to compare against a conservative probability
• + Surface is known (hard outdoor), so at least one contextual factor is confirmed

Cons

• - Research lacks form, injury, and head-to-head details needed to find reliable edges
• - Favorite's price is short; small errors in our probability would still leave EV negative

Details

We compared the market prices (Home 3.25, Away 1.32) to our assessed win probability and find no positive expected value. The market-implied probability for the away side at 1.32 is roughly 75.8%, and with only surface information (outdoor hard) available and no additional form, H2H or injury data in the research, we adopt a conservative true probability for the away team of 72%. At that probability the away line (1.32) yields a negative EV (approximately -4.96% per unit). The home price (3.25) implies about 30.8% — our conservative assessment does not support a materially higher probability for the home team, so we cannot justify backing the underdog at current juice. Given the limited research data, the market favorite does not present value and the underdog is overpriced only if we can confidently assign a win probability >30.77%, which we cannot from available information.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities (Away 1.32 => ~75.8%)
• • Only surface data provided (outdoor hard); no form, injury, or H2H in research
• • Conservative true probability assigned below bookmaker-implied level (72%)