C. Harrison/A. Lahey vs M. Lewis/B. Walker

Highlights

• • Market implies ~63% for home; our estimate ~55%
• • Lack of partner data and mirrored poor form increases uncertainty

Pros

• + Home side is being priced as a clear favorite, which can indicate match control if partner info favored them (not available)
• + Both lead players have experience on hard courts

Cons

• - Both lead players have poor recent form and identical records, offering no clear edge
• - No data on partners makes the matchup highly uncertain
• - Current home odds (1.58) do not meet our required break-even odds (~1.818)

Details

We estimate that the market is overstating the home side's edge given the limited and largely negative recent form available for the named players. Both C. Harrison and M. Lewis have nearly identical recent records (10-21) and recent losses on hard courts, and we have no data on partners A. Lahey or B. Walker to materially differentiate the pairs. The market-implied probability for the home side at decimal 1.58 is about 63.3%; our assessment is closer to 55% given parity in available form and missing partner information, so the current price does not offer positive expected value. Therefore we do not recommend taking the home favorite at 1.58.

Key factors

• • Both named lead players show identical weak recent records (10-21) and recent losses on hard courts
• • No usable data on doubles partners (A. Lahey, B. Walker) prevents confidently assessing pair strength
• • Market price (1.58) implies ~63% for home; our conservative true estimate is ~55%, leaving negative EV