CD Once CaldasAD Pasto
Recommended Bet
Analysis
Summary: We find small but positive value on Once Caldas at 2.18 based on a conservative 48% win estimate, yielding ~4.6% ROI; sensitivity to team news is high.
Highlights
- • Market-implied home probability: ~45.9%
- • Our conservative estimate: 48% -> positive EV at 2.18
Pros
- + Current price (2.18) is above our calculated fair price (2.083)
- + Modest edge leads to a positive expected value without aggressive assumptions
Cons
- - No match-specific data (injuries, form, H2H) available to validate the estimate
- - Edge is small — vulnerable to late team news or market shifts
Details
We have no external data beyond the quoted prices, so we adopt a conservative view: home advantage in Colombia typically provides a small edge and the market-implied probability for Once Caldas at 2.18 is ~45.9%. We estimate a true win probability for Once Caldas of 48% (slightly above the market). At that probability the fair decimal price is 2.083, while the current available price is 2.18 — this creates positive expected value. EV calculation: 0.48 * 2.18 - 1 = 0.0464 (4.64% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We remain cautious because there is no injury/form/H2H data to refine the model; if any team news or market movement reduces our estimated probability below ~45.9% the value disappears.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for home (1/2.18 ≈ 45.9%)
- • Conservative estimated true probability for home (48%) reflecting slight home edge
- • No additional injury/form/H2H information available — caution advised