CPH Wolves vs HAWAII

Highlights

• • Home implied chance (market) ~58.2% vs our 55% estimate
• • Break-even odds for Wolves ~1.818, current odds 1.719 — not profitable

Pros

• + Conservative estimation avoids overbetting on thin information
• + Clear numeric shortfall between required and offered odds for the favorite

Cons

• - Lack of match-specific data increases uncertainty in probability estimates
• - Small edges could flip with more information (lineups, recent form)

Details

We conservatively estimate CPH Wolves as a slight favorite with a true win probability of ~55% based on home status and absence of contrary intel; the market moneyline (Home 1.719, Away 2.08) implies ~58.2% for the home side. Using our estimate, the fair break-even decimal for Wolves is ~1.818, which is higher than the available 1.719, producing a negative expected value. We also checked HAWAII (estimated 45%); at 2.08 the EV is negative as well. Given the lack of additional research (injuries, form, H2H) and the market pricing, neither side offers positive expected value at current prices.

Key factors

• • Conservative true probability estimate for CPH Wolves ~55% (home slight edge)
• • Market-implied home probability (1/1.719) is ~58.2% — market prices home more favorably than our estimate
• • No external data (injuries, recent form, H2H) available — we apply conservative assumptions