Highlights

• • Normalized fair win probability for home ~65.1% (break-even odds ~1.535)
• • Current home odds (1.42) and away odds (2.65) both fail to clear our value threshold

Pros

• + We used a conservative, margin-adjusted probability estimate rather than raw implied odds
• + Avoids taking marginal or negative-expected-value lines in absence of supporting data

Cons

• - No match-specific information (surface, recent form, injuries) to refine probabilities
• - If additional private information exists, value conclusions could change

Details

We used the available market odds and a conservative normalization to remove bookmaker margin and produce a fair win-probability estimate. The market-implied probabilities are 70.42% for the home (1.42) and 37.74% for the away (2.65); after removing the book margin we estimate a fair probability of ~65.15% for the home and ~34.85% for the away. At those probabilities the fair break-even odds for the favorite are ~1.535 and for the underdog ~2.869. Current market odds (1.42 for the home, 2.65 for the away) are both shorter than our required break-evens, producing negative expected returns on both sides. Given the lack of independent information about surface, form, injuries or H2H, and adopting a conservative approach, we do not find positive expected value at the posted prices and therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities normalized to remove bookmaker margin (conservative baseline)
• • Both current prices (1.42 home, 2.65 away) are shorter than our break-even odds
• • No independent data on surface, form, injuries or H2H — increases uncertainty