Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Kalieva: ~58.7% (1.704 odds)
• • Our conservative estimated probability for Kalieva: 56.0% → fair odds ~1.786

Pros

• + We use the available career and recent-form details for Kalieva to form a conservative estimate
• + Clear comparison of implied market price vs our estimated true probability shows no value

Cons

• - Research lacks any concrete information on Caijsa Hennemann, limiting comparative analysis
• - Small differences between market and our estimate mean outcomes are sensitive to uncertainty

Details

We estimate Elvina Kalieva is the stronger, better-known player but available research shows mixed recent form (losses noted in recent results) and no reliable data on Caijsa Hennemann to justify a meaningful adjustment versus market. The current market prices (Away Kalieva 1.704, Home Hennemann 2.13) imply a ~58.7% win probability for Kalieva. Based on Kalieva's career win-loss profile and the limited recent-match detail, we assign a more conservative true win probability of 56.0% for Kalieva. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.786, which is longer than the offered 1.704; that produces a small negative edge (EV ~ -0.046 per unit) on Kalieva. The home price would need a much stronger analytic case (which we do not have from the supplied research) to be considered value. Given the negative expected value on the market favorite and insufficient data on the home player, we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • Provided research contains clear career data for Kalieva but limited to no data for Hennemann
• • Market implies ~58.7% on Kalieva (1.704) which is shorter than our conservative true estimate
• • Recent noted results for Kalieva include losses, reducing confidence vs market-implied probability