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Calgary Flames vs Montreal Canadiens play on 2025-10-23 00:30 in the NHL (ice hockey). Compare ice hockey odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 15.2%. Suggested side: Montreal Canadiens. Moneyline — Home: 2.4 (41.7%), Away: 2.4 (41.7%).
North America’s top professional ice hockey league with 32 teams.
82-game regular season; Stanley Cup Playoffs as best-of-7 series.
Official: https://www.nhl.com · Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Hockey_League
Our lean: Montreal Canadiens. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 2.4, Away: 2.4. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Montreal Canadiens moneyline given current prices.
We view the Montreal Canadiens as the value side at the listed market price. The market splits the moneyline evenly (decimal 2.4 each, implied win probability 41.67%), but Montreal enter with a stronger early-season record (3-1-0) compared with Calgary (1-4-0) and have a recent head-to-head edge versus the Flames. Taking into account Calgary's poor start at home and Montreal's better form, we estimate Montreal's true win probability materially above the market-implied 41.7%. Using a conservative estimate of 48% true probability versus the market odds of 2.4 (odds_used_for_ev = 2.4) yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.48 * 2.4 - 1 = 0.152). There is uncertainty from small-sample early-season form and possible unlisted injuries, but on the available evidence the away moneyline offers value.
Summary: We find value on Montreal's moneyline at 2.4 — our estimated win probability (48%) exceeds the market-implied 41.7%, producing roughly a 15% ROI on a 1-unit stake.