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Calgary Flames vs Winnipeg Jets play on 2025-10-21 01:30 in the NHL (ice hockey). Compare ice hockey odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 10.2%. Suggested side: Winnipeg Jets. Moneyline — Home: 2.82 (35.5%), Away: 2.08 (48.1%).
North America’s top professional ice hockey league with 32 teams.
82-game regular season; Stanley Cup Playoffs as best-of-7 series.
Official: https://www.nhl.com · Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Hockey_League
Our lean: Winnipeg Jets. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 2.82, Away: 2.08. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Winnipeg Jets moneyline given current prices.
The market prices Winnipeg at 2.08 (implied 48.08%). Based on recent head-to-head notes favoring the Jets, Calgary's recent loss, and the available previews indicating the Jets have been winning matchups vs. the Flames, we estimate Winnipeg's true win probability at 53.0%. That probability produces positive value against the current moneyline: EV = 0.53 * 2.08 - 1 = +0.1024 (10.24% ROI). The minimum fair decimal price to break even on our probability is 1.887; the current market price of 2.08 comfortably exceeds that, so the away moneyline represents value at current prices.
Summary: We find value on the Winnipeg Jets moneyline at 2.08 because our estimated win probability (53%) exceeds the market-implied probability (48.1%), yielding ~10.2% EV.