Camila Osorio vs Iva Jovic

Highlights

• • Market implies 45.5% for Osorio but our view is ~50%
• • At our 50% estimate, minimum fair odds are 2.00; current 2.20 yields +10% ROI

Pros

• + Clear quantitative value at current odds if true probability is ~50%
• + No evidence in provided research of a decisive advantage for the favorite

Cons

• - Research is limited and identical for both players — model has higher uncertainty
• - Tennis outcomes are volatile; small sample differences or unreported factors could reverse value

Details

We compare market-implied probabilities to our estimate based solely on the provided player profiles. The market prices make Iva Jovic the favorite (1.68 => implied 59.5%) and Camila Osorio the underdog (2.20 => implied 45.5%). The supplied profiles show virtually identical career spans, overall records (both 10-21) and similar recent match lists and surface experience (Clay and Hard), with no injuries or clear surface advantage reported. Given parity in the available data and no evidence to justify a nearly 60% edge for Jovic, we assign a 50.0% true win probability to Osorio. At p=0.50 the fair decimal price is 2.00; the current 2.20 offers positive expected value. Therefore we recommend backing the home player at 2.20 because the market appears to overprice Jovic relative to the comparable data.

Key factors

• • Provided profiles show near-identical career records and recent form (10-21 each)
• • Both players have experience on Clay and Hard; no clear surface edge in the data
• • Market-implied probability favors Jovic (~59.5%) despite parity in available stats
• • No injury reports or head-to-head provided to justify market gap