Camila Osorio vs Iva Jovic

Highlights

• • Available research shows near-identical form for both players
• • Current market overweights Jovic, creating value on Osorio

Pros

• + Underdog price (2.59) offers a comfortable cushion above our break-even threshold
• + Both players' records and recent results do not justify Jovic being a heavy favorite

Cons

• - Research is limited and truncated — few distinguishing stats or context provided
• - No head-to-head, surface-specific, or injury detail in the provided sources to refine the estimate

Details

We see nearly identical profiles for Camila Osorio and Iva Jovic in the provided research (both showing 10-21 records and similar recent results), which suggests they are closely matched in ability. The market currently prices Jovic as the clear favorite at 1.546 (implied ~64.6%) and Osorio at 2.59 (implied ~38.6%). Given the parity in the available form and career-level data, we estimate Osorio's true win probability materially above the 38.6% break-even implied by 2.59 — we use a conservative estimate of 45%. At that probability Osorio represents positive expected value since 0.45 * 2.59 - 1 = ~0.166 ROI. By contrast, Jovic's price would require a true win probability ≥ 64.6% to be fair value, which is not supported by the identical records and limited distinguishing evidence. The edge is primarily a market mis-pricing relative to the available performance data and the lack of clear advantage for Jovic.

Key factors

• • Both players shown with identical 10-21 records and similar recent results in the research
• • Market clearly favors Jovic at 1.546 despite the lack of distinguishing data
• • Osorio's decimal 2.59 requires only ~38.6% win chance to break even; our estimate is ~45%