Camila Osorio vs Iva Jovic

Highlights

• • Market implies Osorio 39.2% but we estimate ~48%
• • Positive EV at current odds: ~0.224 (22.4% ROI)

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at supplied market price
• + Bet rationale grounded in symmetric profiles and lack of downside signals

Cons

• - Research is sparse and both players have poor recent overall records (10-21), increasing variance
• - No head-to-head or detailed form/injury data provided — estimate relies on symmetry and conservative judgement

Details

Both player profiles in the provided research show near-identical career records (10-21) and similar surface history (Clay, Hard) with no clear injury or form edge for either player. The market currently prices Iva Jovic as a clear favorite (away 1.50, implied win probability 66.7%), leaving Camila Osorio at 2.55 (implied 39.2%). Given the symmetric data and lack of distinguishing factors in the research, we estimate the true win probability for Osorio materially higher than the market-implied 39.2% — we set a conservative estimated_true_probability of 48%. At decimal 2.55 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.48 * 2.55 - 1 = 0.224). We prefer Osorio because the current price overpays relative to a conservative assessment of her chances based on the supplied profiles, surface compatibility, and absence of negative signals that would justify the market's heavy lean toward Jovic.

Key factors

• • Both players show virtually identical career records and surface history in the supplied data
• • Market-implied probability for Camila Osorio (39.2%) appears too low given the symmetric profiles
• • No injuries, head-to-head, or venue advantages noted in the research to justify Iva Jovic's heavy favoritism