Highlights

• • Both players show near-identical records and recent poor form
• • Current odds underdog 6.40 implies only ~15.6% — below our 20% estimate

Pros

• + Clear price discrepancy between market and our probability estimate
• + Simple, conservative rationale based on comparable player profiles

Cons

• - Limited data and no H2H or detailed match conditions provided
• - High variance inherent in backing long-priced underdogs in tennis

Details

We see nearly identical career records and recent form for Camila Romero and Katarina Jokic (both ~10-21 across clay/hard), with no injury information or surface advantage reported. The market prices Katarina at 1.147 (implied win probability ~87.2%) and Camila at 6.40 (implied ~15.6%). Given the symmetry in available profiles and lack of corroborating evidence for an 87% chance for Jokic, we assess the market is overstating Jokic and understating Romero. We estimate Romero's true win probability at 20.0% versus the market-implied 15.6% — at decimal odds 6.40 that yields EV = 0.20 * 6.40 - 1 = +0.28 (28% ROI). We used the public moneyline 6.40 for the underdog in the EV calculation. Betting Camila represents value because the minimum fair decimal odds required for our probability is 5.000, and the current price (6.40) is meaningfully higher.

Key factors

• • Very similar career records and surfaces (both ~10-21; clay/hard)
• • No injury or matchup information favoring the heavy favorite is present
• • Market implies an outsized probability for Jokic (~87%), creating value for the underdog