Highlights

• • Estimated true probability for away: 60% (fair odds 1.667)
• • Current price 1.741 yields ~+4.5% expected value

Pros

• + Market already leans to the away side, aligning with our view of home decline
• + Positive, if modest, EV at widely available prices

Cons

• - Limited data on Marta Lombardini in the provided research increases uncertainty
• - Edge is small — sensitive to small changes in true probability estimate

Details

We compare the market prices (Home 2.02, Away 1.741) against our estimated win probabilities. Camilla Gennaro's career record is solid (559-507) but her very recent form shows a noticeable decline in results, which reduces her win chance here. The market already favors Marta Lombardini at 1.741 (implied probability ~57.5%); given Gennaro's recent poor form and lack of a surface/conditions advantage in the available data, we estimate Lombardini's true win probability at 60%. At that true probability the fair price is 1.667 decimal; the current available price of 1.741 therefore offers positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.60 * 1.741 - 1 = 0.0446 (≈ +4.5% ROI). We recommend the away side because it shows value versus our modelled probability, but the margin is modest and uncertainty is elevated due to limited opponent-specific data.

Key factors

• • Gennaro's recent form has deteriorated vs her career baseline
• • Market-implied probability for Lombardini (~57.5%) is slightly below our 60% estimate
• • Limited opponent-specific data increases model uncertainty but does not negate available edge