Highlights

• • Home implied probability ~90.1% (1.11) but we estimate 88%
• • Negative EV at current favorite price: approx -2.3% ROI

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies a favorite — low likelihood of upset under usual conditions
• + If new information (injury, withdrawal) appears, value could change quickly

Cons

• - No research data returned; our estimate carries substantial uncertainty
• - Current odds do not offer positive EV on either side given conservative probabilities

Details

We have no external data returned and must proceed conservatively. The market prices make Camille Cheli an overwhelming favorite at 1.11 (implied ~90.09%) versus Jael Molongo at 6.10 (implied ~16.39%); the book displays an overround (~6.5%). With no surface, form, injury, or H2H information, we discount the market slightly for uncertainty and the bookmaker margin. We estimate the home player’s true win probability at 88.0% (0.88), below the market-implied 90.1%, which produces a small negative expected value at current home odds (EV = 0.88*1.11 - 1 = -0.023). To be +EV backing the favorite we would require odds >= 1.136 (rounded). The away price would only be +EV if we believed Molongo’s true win probability exceeded her implied 16.39%; with no evidence to support that, we do not see reliable value on the underdog either. Therefore we recommend no bet: the market margin and information shortfall remove clear value.

Key factors

• • No external data returned — must use conservative priors
• • Market heavily favors home (1.11) with ~6.5% overround
• • Estimated true probability (88%) is below market-implied (90.1%), producing negative EV