Highlights

• • Favorite's implied probability (86%) appears too high relative to available form data
• • Underdog required odds for break-even are 4.00; current 4.75 provides positive EV

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge: current odds (4.75) exceed our minimum required odds (4.00)
• + Market likely underestimates variance due to limited data and missing opponent profile

Cons

• - Research is limited — Camilo Cano Gomez has no provided profile, increasing uncertainty
• - Short career/sample for Badenhorst means our probability estimate carries model risk

Details

The market strongly favors Devin Badenhorst at 1.16 (implied ~86.2%), but the only available research shows a very small sample (6-3 career) and mixed recent results on hard courts — not dominance that justifies an 86% true win probability. We account for limited data on Camilo Cano Gomez (no profile provided), which raises uncertainty and increases upset potential. Using a conservative estimate that Badenhorst's true win probability is ~75% (implying the home player has ~25%), the underdog price of 4.75 (implied 21.05%) offers value: our estimated 25% x 4.75 - 1 = +0.1875 EV per unit. The threshold decimal odds needed for positive EV at our estimated probability is 4.000, and the current 4.75 exceeds that by a comfortable margin. We therefore recommend the home upset at current widely-available prices, while noting this view depends on downgrading the market's implied certainty in Badenhorst given small-sample form and missing information on the opponent.

Key factors

• • Market implies 86.2% for Badenhorst (1.16), which looks overstated given limited sample and mixed results
• • Badenhorst career record 6-3 on hard shows competence but not near-prohibitive dominance
• • No available profile or form data for Camilo increases upset variance and supports a higher true chance for the underdog