Highlights

• • Sean's season win rate (~72%) materially higher than Cannon's (~52%)
• • Current away price 2.35 implies a much lower probability than our 57% estimate

Pros

• + Large gap in season-level win-loss records favors Sean
• + Current odds (2.35) convert to an EV of ~0.34 per unit at our probability estimate

Cons

• - H2H and detailed match-up stats are missing from the research
• - Both players have recent losses and some form volatility, increasing short-term uncertainty

Details

We find value on Sean Cuenin (away). The market strongly favors Cannon Kingsley at 1.54, implying ~65% chance, but the available research shows Sean with a substantially better season record (34-13 vs 23-21) and consistent results on hard and clay. Rennes appears to be a hard-court event in the recent notes, a surface both have experience on, so surface does not materially favour Cannon. Sean's recent participation in Rennes (active on 08-Sep-2025) and higher overall win rate suggest his true win probability is notably above the market-implied probability for 2.35. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 57% for Sean, the fair decimal price is ~1.754; at the current quoted 2.35 the bet shows strong positive expectation. We used the current away moneyline 2.35 for the EV calculation (EV = 0.57 * 2.35 - 1 = 0.3395). Key caveats: H2H data is not available in the research, and both players have recent losses, so uncertainty remains—hence a medium risk classification.

Key factors

• • Sean Cuenin's superior season record (34-13) vs Cannon Kingsley (23-21)
• • Match recently listed as Rennes Challenger (hard) where both have experience; no clear surface edge for Cannon
• • Market favours home Cannon at 1.54 which appears to underprice Sean given form and win rate