Cannon Kingsley vs Titouan Droguet

Highlights

• • Underdog (Kingsley) required price for break-even: ~3.03; current 3.8 > required
• • Estimated ROI on a 1-unit stake at current odds: ~25%

Pros

• + Current market likely overstates Droguet’s win probability given available records
• + Both players’ profiles show mixed recent form, increasing upset potential

Cons

• - Limited and noisy data: no H2H, unclear surface for Rennes in provided sources
• - Droguet’s larger sample and superior overall record remain a counterargument

Details

The market prices Titouan Droguet at 1.25 (implied ~80% win prob) which leaves Cannon Kingsley priced at 3.8 (implied ~26.3%). Our read of the provided player profiles shows relatively small samples and similar surface experience (both have clay and hard results) and no H2H or clear form edge favoring Droguet to the extreme the market implies. Kingsley has a roughly .523 career win rate across 44 matches; Droguet has a higher overall win rate (.597 across 62 matches) but the gap is modest and both players have recent mixed results. Given the uncertain surface/venue advantage and limited dataset, we estimate Kingsley's true probability of winning this match around 33%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~3.03, so the available 3.8 represents value. Calculation: estimated p = 0.33, odds = 3.8 -> EV = 0.33 * 3.8 - 1 = 0.254 (25.4% ROI). We therefore recommend the underdog (home) only because current odds exceed our min_required_decimal_odds; we flag medium risk due to limited data and lack of explicit surface/H2H info.

Key factors

• • Market implies Kingsley ~26.3% but available data supports a higher chance (~33%)
• • Both players have experience on clay and hard — no clear surface edge in the provided data
• • Small sample sizes and lack of H2H create model uncertainty (increases variance)