Cara Korhonen vs Kirra Bond-Scott
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the away player at 10.0 because Korhonen's form and record do not justify a ~95% market probability; we estimate the away has ~15% true chance, yielding ~+50% EV.
Highlights
- • Korhonen's recent results and 10-21 career record contradict a 95% market chance
- • At 10.0, the away price exceeds the fair threshold (6.667) for our 15% probability estimate
Pros
- + Clear numerical value: current odds (10.0) significantly exceed the min required odds for our probability estimate
- + Korhonen's recent form (1 win in recent matches) undermines the heavy favorite status
Cons
- - Very limited public data on Kirra Bond-Scott increases uncertainty about our probability estimate
- - Market may reflect inside information (fitness, withdrawals, matchup specifics) we do not have
Details
We compare market-implied probabilities to our estimate. The market prices Cara Korhonen at 1.05 (implied ~95.24%) and Kirra Bond-Scott at 10.0 (implied 10%). Korhonen's publicly available recent form and career record (10-21, with only 1 win in the last 10 matches listed) do not support a ~95% chance to win; that price appears overstated. Given the lack of negative information about the opponent and the clear mismatch between Korhonen's form and the market's heavy favorite tag, we assign the away player a materially higher true chance than 10%. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 15% for Kirra Bond-Scott versus the market's 10% implies positive expected value at the current 10.0 price (EV = 0.15 * 10.0 - 1 = +0.50, or +50% ROI). The minimum fair decimal odds for that probability are 6.667, and the current 10.0 is well above that threshold, giving us value. We remain cautious due to limited data on the opponent and the potential for market information we do not have, so we flag the play as high risk despite clear pricing value.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for Korhonen (1.05) is ~95%, which conflicts with her 10-21 career record and recent poor form
- • Kirra Bond-Scott is priced at 10.0 (10% implied); limited public data on her makes market likely overstating Korhonen
- • Smaller events and limited sample sizes increase variance, making longer odds on the underdog more valuable