Highlights

• • Cordoba has only 1 career win in 18 matches
• • Rodenas' career win rate materially exceeds Cordoba's, producing an estimated ~91% win probability

Pros

• + Clear statistical gap in career records favoring Rodenas
• + Current price (1.10) slightly undervalues Rodenas versus our model

Cons

• - Edge is extremely small (≈0.2% ROI) — easily erased by variance or unreported factors
• - Model is based on limited data and simple normalization; lacks H2H and live-condition details

Details

We compare career win rates and recent form on clay from the provided profiles. Carles Cordoba is 1-17 (≈5.6% career win rate) with virtually no winning track record, while Pedro Rodenas is 45-34 (≈57.0% career win rate) and has recent clay activity. Using a simple normalized win-rate model (Rodenas_winrate / (Rodenas_winrate + Cordoba_winrate)) to estimate head-to-head probability on clay gives Rodenas ≈91.1% to win. The market price of 1.10 (implied 90.91%) slightly underestimates our estimated probability, producing a small positive edge. We therefore recommend the away moneyline at current widely-available odds (1.10), but note the edge is very small and sensitive to any unlisted injuries or match conditions.

Key factors

• • Large career performance gap: Cordoba 1-17 vs Rodenas 45-34
• • Both have clay experience; Rodenas has substantially stronger overall record
• • Market odds 1.10 imply ~90.9% — below our estimated ~91.1% probability