Carles Hernandez vs Aidan Mchugh
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see a small value on Carles Hernandez at 2.66 due to a likely clay surface edge and a market that favors the away player despite limited clay evidence for him.
Highlights
- • Hernandez has clay match experience; Mchugh's profile lists hard/grass only
- • Current home odds (2.66) imply 37.6% — we estimate Hernandez ~39%, yielding slight positive EV
Pros
- + Surface familiarity advantage for Hernandez
- + Odds provide a small overlay versus our estimated probability
Cons
- - Mchugh's stronger overall record and larger match sample
- - Limited data and no head-to-head or injury information increases uncertainty
Details
We view Carles Hernandez as undervalued at the current home price (2.66). Market-implied probability for Hernandez is ~37.6% (1/2.66). Hernandez has documented clay experience and recent clay matches in his profile, while Aidan Mchugh's listed surfaces are primarily hard and grass with no explicit clay resume in the provided data. Mchugh carries the stronger overall record (32-20 vs 11-13) and more match exposure, which explains favorite status, but the probable surface mismatch narrows that gap. Given the combination of Hernandez's clay exposure and the market price, we estimate Hernandez's true win probability at 39.0%, which is slightly above the market-implied 37.6%, producing a small positive expected value at the available odds.
Key factors
- • Surface: tournament in Pozzuoli likely clay and Hernandez has explicit clay matches
- • Player form/sample: Mchugh has a better overall record and more matches, but those are mostly on hard/grass
- • Market pricing: away favorite pushed price to 1.429, creating slight overlay on the home side