Carles Hernandez vs Fabrizio Karol Pio Osti

Highlights

• • Book implied probability 83.6% vs our estimate 88% — positive edge
• • Opponent has virtually no winning track record (0-3), increasing favoritism for Hernandez

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current market price
• + Clear experience and form advantage on clay in the provided data

Cons

• - EV is modest (+5.2%) — not a large margin for error
• - Limited additional detail (no H2H, small sample sizes) increases uncertainty

Details

We view Carles Hernandez as a clear favorite based on the research: substantially more match experience (24 matches, 11-13 record) and demonstrated clay experience versus Fabrizio Karol Pio Osti's extremely limited record (3 matches, 0-3, all on clay). The market price of 1.196 implies ~83.6% win probability; we estimate Hernandez's true win probability at 88% given experience edge and superior recent results. At that probability the 1.196 price offers positive expected value (EV = 0.88*1.196 - 1 ≈ +0.0525). We also note the bookmaker margin embedded in the prices (~8% on the two outcomes), but even after allowing for that our probability model still finds value on the home side.

Key factors

• • Experience gap: Hernandez has 24 matches vs Osti's 3
• • Win record: Hernandez has wins on clay and more recent match play
• • Osti's 0-3 record suggests low baseline probability of upset