Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Preston Stearns
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend a small-value bet on the home player Carlo Alberto Caniato: our model estimates a 76% win chance versus a market-implied ~73%, yielding ~4.1% EV at 1.37.
Highlights
- • Home priced at 1.37 offers a positive expected value versus our 0.76 win estimate
- • Significant experience and better results for Caniato vs. Stearns' limited, winless record
Pros
- + Positive ROI at available market price (≈+4.1%)
- + Greater match experience and recent activity favor the home player
Cons
- - Edge is modest; variance in tennis matches can erase the small margin
- - Limited direct-comparison/H2H data and some data inconsistencies increase uncertainty
Details
We see clear value backing Carlo Alberto Caniato at the current moneyline. The market price of 1.37 implies ~73.0% win probability, while our assessment—based on Caniato's substantially larger match sample, positive overall record (29-23), and familiarity on hard courts versus Preston Stearns' very limited pro results (0-5 record, only six matches played)—is a true win probability of 76%. Using the available price (1.37) this converts to EV = 0.76 * 1.37 - 1 = +0.041 (≈+4.1% ROI). The margin is not huge, so we account for some uncertainty from limited direct-comparison data and potential short-term variance, but the market appears to slightly underprice Caniato, giving a small positive expected value.
Key factors
- • Caniato has far more pro matches and a winning record (29-23), indicating greater consistency
- • Match surface is hard where both have played, but Stearns has only 6 career matches with 0 wins
- • Market-implied probability (≈73.0%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (76%)