Highlights

• • Market implies ~93.98% for Heide while we estimate ~90%
• • Fair decimal for our probability ≈ 1.111; current 1.064 is too low to back

Pros

• + Heide has a better overall record in the supplied data
• + Both players have relevant surface experience so outcome is not a big unknown

Cons

• - Current favorite price leaves no positive EV
• - Research lacks H2H, recent match rhythm and injury info, increasing uncertainty

Details

We view Gustavo Heide as the clear favorite based on the provided records (Heide 19-15 vs Zarate 12-14) and both players' experience on clay/hard, but the market price (1.064, implied ~93.98%) overstates his win probability versus our estimate. Given limited recent-match detail and no head-to-head or injury information in the research, we conservatively estimate Heide's true win probability at 90%. At that probability the fair price would be ~1.111; the current price (1.064) produces a negative expectation (EV ≈ -0.042), so there is no value to take at available odds. Conversely, Zarate at 7.45 would need an actual win probability of ~13.4% to be fair; we estimate his chance below that threshold and see no value on the underdog either. We therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors Gustavo Heide (1.064 -> implied ~93.98%)
• • Heide has the superior recorded win-loss (19-15) vs Zarate (12-14)
• • Both players have experience on clay and hard; no clear surface edge identified
• • No head-to-head or injury/fitness details available to suggest a market misprice
• • Current price implies a win probability materially above our conservative estimate (90%)