Carlos Maria Zarate vs Gustavo Heide

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (91.7%) > our estimate (88%)
• • Recent-match recency favors Zarate, creating uncertainty about Heide's true edge

Pros

• + Heide has a clearer track record with more wins overall
• + Both players' experience on clay/hard suggests surface won't produce major surprise

Cons

• - Market price (1.09) leaves virtually no margin for estimation error
• - Heide's last recorded match activity in the provided data is months earlier than Zarate's, reducing confidence in the market price

Details

We estimate Gustavo Heide is the clear favorite but the market price (1.09, implied ~91.7%) overstates his edge versus the data available. Gustavo's career record (19-15) is stronger than Carlos Maria Zarate's (12-14) and both have experience on clay and hard courts, supporting favoritism. However, Zarate's more recent recorded match activity (July 2025) versus the last recorded activity for Heide (February 2025) introduces match-fitness uncertainty that reduces our confidence above the market-implied probability. We therefore estimate Gustavo's true win probability at 88%, which implies required odds of ~1.136 to be +EV. At the current 1.09 quote the expected value is negative, so we do not recommend taking the favorite here.

Key factors

• • Gustavo Heide has the better overall career record (19-15 vs 12-14)
• • Both players have experience on clay and hard — surface advantage not decisive from given data
• • Carlos Zarate has more recent recorded match activity (July 2025) vs Heide (Feb 2025), introducing uncertainty on Heide's sharpness
• • Market implies ~91.7% for Heide (1.09) which exceeds our estimated true probability