Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Osorio

Highlights

• • Implied probability for Osorio (40.0%) is well below our estimate (52%).
• • At 2.50, the bet yields ~+30% ROI under our model.

Pros

• + Clear positive expected value at current market odds
• + Osorio shows a marginally better career win rate and more match experience in the dataset

Cons

• - Research is limited and truncated; no direct head-to-head or match-surface confirmation
• - Lack of detailed recent-form/injury information increases outcome uncertainty

Details

The market prices Carlos Maria Zarate at 1.50 (implied win probability 66.7%) and Juan Sebastian Osorio at 2.50 (implied 40.0%). Our read of the limited research favors Osorio: his career win rate (18/36 = 50%) is marginally better than Zarate's (13/27 = 48%) and he has played more matches recently, suggesting slightly greater stability. There is no strong authoritative indication of injuries, and both players have experience on clay and hard courts so surface is not a decisive differentiator from the provided data. Taking a cautious tilt in Osorio's favor to reflect his slightly stronger overall record and match volume, we estimate Osorio's true win probability at 52.0%. That probability implies fair decimal odds of 1.923; the available price of 2.50 offers considerable value (EV = 0.52 * 2.50 - 1 = +0.30, a +30% ROI on a 1-unit stake). Given the lack of head-to-head details and limited match context, we remain conservative but still find clear positive expected value on the away selection at the quoted market price.

Key factors

• • Slightly better career win rate and greater match volume for Osorio (18-18 vs 13-14)
• • Market heavily favors Zarate despite marginally inferior record
• • No clear surface or injury advantage apparent in provided data, increasing weight of raw records