Carmen Gallardo Guevara vs Stefaniya Pushkar
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We estimate the home player has a 58% chance to win, which implies a fair price of 1.724; the current 1.595 offers negative EV, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Estimated true probability (home) 58.0% -> breakeven odds 1.724
- • Current home odds 1.595 produce ~-7.5% ROI, no value
Pros
- + Market does favor the home player, indicating a legitimate baseline edge
- + Clay surface information is available and neutral to mildly informative
Cons
- - Insufficient player-specific data (form, injuries, H2H) to justify overruling the market
- - Current prices are shorter than our fair estimate, yielding negative EV
Details
The market prices (Home 1.595, Away 2.19) imply a raw favorite probability for the home player of 62.8% (1/1.595). Removing a typical bookmaker margin yields a fairer implied home probability near 57.9%. Given only the surface (clay) and no corroborating form, injury or H2H data in the research, we conservatively estimate the true win probability for the home player at 58.0%. At that probability the breakeven decimal price is 1.724 (1 / 0.58). The current home price of 1.595 is shorter than our required 1.724, producing a negative expected value (EV = 0.58 * 1.595 - 1 = -0.075), so there is no value on the home side at available prices. The away side would require a true probability > 45.66% to be +EV at the listed 2.19; given the market and lack of additional positives for the away player, we do not assess that probability to be higher than the breakeven threshold. Therefore we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probabilities and bookmaker margin (vig) leave little room for value
- • Surface is clay but research provides no specific player form or clay pedigree
- • No injury, recent form, or head-to-head data available to justify deviating from market