Carmen Lopez Martinez vs Maria Penalver Aguilo

Highlights

• • Identical records and recent results for both players in the research provided
• • Current away price (11.0) implies only ~9% chance, which appears inconsistent with the data

Pros

• + Very large positive expected value at the quoted 11.0 price
• + No surface disadvantage evident — both have clay experience

Cons

• - Research lacks ranking, head-to-head and injury/scratch info that could justify the market gap
• - The market skew could be driven by non-performance factors (withdrawal risk, late info) not visible in the data

Details

We find clear value on the away moneyline (Maria Penalver Aguilo at 11.0). The available research shows both players with virtually identical profiles (same career span, identical 10-21 records and similar recent results) and both have experience on clay, so there is no evidence to justify a 97% market chance for the home player. Conservatively estimating Maria's true win probability at 45% (weaker than a pure 50/50 to reflect uncertainty), the fair odds would be ~2.22. The quoted 11.0 therefore represents large positive expected value. We used the provided current moneyline (11.0) to compute EV (EV = 0.45 * 11.0 - 1 = 3.95). Key caveats: limited data on ranking, form differences, and potential late withdrawals could explain the market skew, so we remain cautious but recognise strong value at the listed price.

Key factors

• • Both players show virtually identical career records and recent results in the provided data
• • Surface is clay for the match — both players have clay experience, so no clear surface edge
• • Market prices heavily favor the home player (1.03) despite no supporting differential in the research