Highlights

• • Quoted away odds imply only ~20% win chance
• • We estimate ~45% true chance for Min Liu → large positive EV

Pros

• + Substantial positive expected value at available prices
• + Both players' records and surface histories indicate near parity, supporting a much higher probability than market implies

Cons

• - Limited depth in the provided data (no head-to-head, rankings, or recent match context beyond losses)
• - Tennis upsets and small-sample variance can still produce adverse outcomes despite positive EV

Details

We find clear value backing Min Liu at the available market price. The current away price of 4.93 implies only a ~20.3% chance (1/4.93), which is implausibly low given the research: both players have nearly identical career spans, identical 10-21 records across clay and hard, and recent form shows losses for both with no reported injuries or clear edges. On a neutral assessment we estimate Min Liu's true win probability substantially higher (we use 45%), driven by parity in records, shared surface experience (clay), and lack of information favoring Carmen to justify the heavy favorite price. Using our 45% estimate against the quoted 4.93 decimal odds produces a large positive expected value (EV = 0.45 * 4.93 - 1 = 1.219), so a wager on the away player represents value at current prices.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and experience on clay and hard
• • No injury reports or form advantages in the research favoring the heavy favorite
• • Bookmarket price (away 4.93) implies only ~20% chance, far below our parity-based estimate