Carmen Lopez Martinez vs Shiyu Ye

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.746) = ~57.3% vs our estimate 55.0%
• • Neither side reaches positive EV at current market prices

Pros

• + Market identifies a favorite (home) which matches a slight edge in our model
• + Both players’ clay experience reduces variance from surface mismatch

Cons

• - No distinct form/injury/H2H advantage in the provided research to justify a larger probability edge
• - Current market odds are too short to yield positive expected value for either side

Details

Both player profiles in the research show nearly identical career records (10-21) and both have experience on clay; there is no clear performance edge, H2H, or injury information to justify a strong deviation from parity. The market prices give Carmen Lopez Martinez the edge at 1.746 (implied ~57.3%), but after accounting for similar recent form and both players having clay on their surface lists we estimate a more conservative true win probability for the home player (Carmen) of 55.0%. That makes the fair decimal price ~1.818; the current favorite quote of 1.746 is too short to offer positive EV by our model. The away price (1.98) is also shorter than the breakeven level implied by our estimated probability for the away player (~0.45 -> required odds ~2.222), so neither side shows value at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided data
• • Surface is clay and both players list clay among surfaces played; no clear clay-specialist edge in research
• • Market favours the home player but the price (1.746) is shorter than our fair value estimate (~1.818)