Highlights

• • Market implies ~90.1% for the home favorite at 1.11
• • Our conservative true probability (88%) produces EV = -0.023 at current odds

Pros

• + Home is a clear market favorite which often wins outright
• + Short price limits downside if one insists on exposure

Cons

• - Current odds leave no margin for error or unknown negative factors
• - Lack of surface/form/injury data increases model uncertainty

Details

We compared the market price (home 1.11) to a conservative, evidence-light true-probability estimate. The market-implied probability at 1.11 is ~90.1%. Given no external information and the large favorite status, we conservatively estimate Carol Plakk's true win probability at 88.0% to account for unknowns (surface, form, injuries, and potential market vig). At that probability the expected value at the current home price is negative (EV = 0.88 * 1.11 - 1 = -0.023). The downside of a small negative edge and the lack of actionable, reliable information leads us to avoid recommending a bet. To justify a value play on the home side we would require decimal odds >= 1.136.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability at home 1.11 is ~90.1%
• • We apply a conservative true-probability of 88% due to lack of external data and potential unknown risks
• • Current price offers a slight negative EV under our estimate (small loss per unit staked)
• • Unknowns (surface, injuries, recent form, head-to-head) increase uncertainty and argue for caution