Highlights

• • Profiles and recent results provided are effectively identical between the two players
• • Home price 1.88 produces EV = -0.06 at our 50% probability; Away 1.84 is slightly worse

Pros

• + Match is well-priced for market closeness — implies a fair line with low bookmaker edge
• + Limited information reduces risk of overlooked favoring factors in the market

Cons

• - No positive expected value at available prices — both sides are negative EV
• - Research lacks head-to-head, current fitness, or detailed surface-performance splits that could reveal an edge

Details

We estimate this match is essentially coin-flip based on the provided profiles: both players show identical career spans, identical overall records (10-21) and matching recent-match items with no clear surface or form edge. The market prices (Home 1.88, Away 1.84) imply required win probabilities of ~53.2% and ~54.3% respectively to be +EV. Our estimated true win probability for either player is ~50.0%, so neither moneyline offers positive expected value. Calculation: EV_home = 0.50 * 1.88 - 1 = -0.06 (negative); EV_away = 0.50 * 1.84 - 1 = -0.08 (negative). Therefore we do not recommend a bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical aggregate records and recent-match data in the provided research
• • No clear surface, injury, or form advantage is present in the supplied information
• • Current market prices (1.88 vs 1.84) demand >53% win probability to be +EV, above our 50% estimate