Carol Plakk vs Arianna Zucchini
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market prices Zucchini as a near-certainty despite limited supporting data; at available odds we find no positive EV and therefore recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Zucchini is ~95% (1.05), which is inconsistent with her documented 10-21 record
- • To be +EV on Zucchini we would need odds ≥ 1.667 given our 60% win-probability estimate
Pros
- + Zucchini is the clear market favorite, so a win is likely in market terms
- + If additional proprietary data showed Zucchini as near-certain (≥95%), the market price would be acceptable
Cons
- - Current odds on Zucchini (1.05) offer no value unless her win probability is essentially certain
- - Research shows recent losses and a sub-50% career record, which contradicts the market's near-certain pricing
Details
We see an extreme market price that heavily favors Arianna Zucchini (1.05) despite the limited performance data in the Research. Zucchini's career record in the provided data is 10-21 (32% win rate) and she has recent losses on hard courts in early September; that profile does not justify a true-win probability near the market-implied ~95%. Even allowing for matchup- or ranking-based reasons the market might be pricing, the current decimal of 1.05 leaves no margin for value unless Zucchini's true chance is essentially certain. We estimate a realistic true probability materially below the implied 95% (we use 60% in our model to reflect an above-average favorite but not a near-certainty). At that estimate the required price to generate positive EV is ~1.667; the offered 1.05 produces a strongly negative EV (-0.37 per unit). Conversely, the 9.5 on the home underdog would be value only if the home player's true chance is >10.53% — we have no data in the Research to justify a probability that high for Carol Plakk, and we cannot responsibly identify her as a true 20%+ chance without further information. Given the mismatch between limited data and the extremely compressed market price, we decline to recommend a side.
Key factors
- • Arianna Zucchini's provided career record (10-21) implies she is not a near-certain winner
- • Recent losses on hard courts (early September) from the Research weaken confidence in a 95% market probability
- • Market-implied probability (95%) leaves no value margin at available odds; required fair odds (≈1.667) are much higher