Highlights

• • Home fair price ~2.083; available price 2.18 offers a small edge
• • Edge driven by near-symmetric player data and bookmaker overround

Pros

• + Current home odds exceed our fair-price estimate, producing positive EV
• + Both primary players' profiles are similar, making a large away advantage unlikely based on available data

Cons

• - Partners' abilities and head-to-head dynamics are not provided, increasing uncertainty
• - Edge is small (≈4.6% ROI) and could be erased by unobserved factors

Details

We see the market favoring the away pair at 1.62 (implied ~61.7%) while the home pair is priced at 2.18 (implied ~45.9%). The available player profiles for Carol Young Suh Lee and C. Harrison show nearly identical records (10-21) and similarly poor recent form, and we have no data on the partners (Martinez Vaquero / A. Lahey) to justify a large gap in probabilities. Given the symmetry in the available data and the bookmaker overround (~7.6%), we estimate the true win probability for the home team at 48%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~2.083, which is lower than the available 2.18, producing a small positive expected value. We therefore recommend the home side only because the current home price (2.18) offers a measurable edge vs our estimate. This is a small, information-limited edge and carries material model uncertainty due to missing partner and matchup details.

Key factors

• • Both researched individual players (Carol Young Suh Lee and C. Harrison) show near-identical records and recent form
• • Bookmaker prices imply a sizeable edge for the away side, but available profiles do not support a large disparity
• • Market overround (~7.6%) increases apparent favoritism; missing partner data raises uncertainty