Highlights

• • Profiles in research are effectively symmetric, supporting ~50% win chance for either player
• • Current home price (2.35) exceeds our fair price (2.00), producing ~17.5% EV

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge vs implied market probability
• + Simple rationale based on symmetry and lack of contrary evidence

Cons

• - Limited and truncated research data increases uncertainty
• - No H2H, recent-match detail or injury info provided to further support the projection

Details

We find value on the home moneyline (Carol Zhao at 2.35). The supplied profiles show both players with nearly identical career spans, surfaces and overall records (10-21) and the research does not provide any clear form, injury or H2H edge for Sijia Wei. With essentially symmetric information, the market's pricing (Away 1.58 -> implied 63.3%) appears to overstate the away's advantage. We therefore estimate the true win probability for Carol Zhao at 50.0%; that implies a fair decimal price of 2.00, so the offered 2.35 contains positive expected value. Using the current odds (2.35) the EV = 0.50*2.35 - 1 = +0.175 (17.5% ROI). We note uncertainty due to limited differentiating data, so the recommendation is a value pick only because current prices are substantially skewed to the away.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical records and surfaces in the provided data (10-21)
• • Research contains no injury, H2H or clear form advantage for the away player
• • Bookmaker market implies a strong favorite (1.58) that is not supported by the supplied profiles