Highlights

• • Book market implies Monnet ~64.9% but our estimate is 60%
• • Required fair odds for Monnet are ~1.667; current 1.54 is short

Pros

• + Clear conservative probability model based on provided data
• + Avoids chasing a favourite that the market is overpricing

Cons

• - Limited data (no H2H, no confirmed surface at Huzhou) increases uncertainty
• - Small differences between implied and estimated probabilities could swing decision with additional info

Details

We compare the market prices to our independent win-probability estimate based solely on the provided player profiles and recent form. The market gives Carole Monnet 1.54 (implied ~64.9%) and Zarina Diyas 2.45 (implied ~40.8%). Both players show identical overall records (10-21) and recent losses in the provided logs, with no clear surface advantage or injury information. We estimate Monnet's true win probability at 60.0%, which implies fair decimal odds of 1.667. The bookmaker's current price of 1.54 is shorter than our required 1.667, producing a negative expected value (EV = 0.6 * 1.54 - 1 = -0.076). The away price (2.45) likewise contains no detectable value versus a reasonable away probability (we conservatively place Diyas near 40%), producing roughly break-even to slightly negative EV. Given both sides produce negative EV at available prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical overall records (10-21) in the provided profiles
• • Recent form in the research shows multiple recent losses for both players
• • Market prices imply a stronger favorite than our assessment (bookmaker favours Monnet more than our model)