Highlights

• • Market implied prob. for home: ~77.97%
• • Our estimated true prob. for home: 58% → break-even odds ~1.724

Pros

• + Home status gives Alves a modest, plausible edge over a similarly-ranked opponent
• + Clear and simple value comparison shows the market price is far too short

Cons

• - Research shows both players with similar records and recent poor form, limiting confidence in a large edge
• - Current market price would require an implausibly high true probability (>78%) to be +EV

Details

We see the market prices Carolina Alves as a heavy favorite at 1.282 (implied 77.97%). The available research shows both players have nearly identical career records and recent form, with no clear dominance for Alves that would justify a ~78% true win probability. We estimate a realistic win probability for Alves around 58% given the parity in records, lack of clear form/injury advantage, and only a modest home-edge. At that estimate the break-even decimal price would be ~1.724, well above the current 1.282, producing a negative expected return. Therefore there is no value on the favorite at current prices and we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent results in the research
• • Market-implied probability for the home favorite (≈78%) is much higher than our estimated true probability (58%)
• • No reported injuries or surface advantage in the research to justify a large favorite edge