Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for home (86%) far exceeds what the research supports
• • Both players have similar records and recent losses — no clear edge

Pros

• + If there are unseen factors (ranking, home crowd, withdrawals) the market may be right
• + Short prices reduce variance if one were forced to back the favorite

Cons

• - Provided data shows no performance gap to justify 1.16 pricing
• - Betting at 1.16 yields a strongly negative expected value based on our estimate

Details

We reviewed the provided player profiles: both Carolina Meligeni Rodrigues Alves and Nauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva have identical aggregated records (10-21) and near-identical recent form (losses in the recent listed events). The market price (home 1.16) implies ~86% win probability for Carolina, but the supplied data gives no clear edge to justify that level — no superior recent form, head-to-head, ranking, or injury advantage is present in the research. Conservatively, we estimate Carolina's true win probability at 52%, which is far below the market-implied 86% and therefore offers negative expected value at the quoted 1.16. Because the bookmaker price greatly overstates the favorite's likelihood and the research does not support such a large gap, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical season records (10-21) in the provided data
• • Recent match snippets show losses for both players; no clear momentum advantage
• • Market odds (1.16) imply an 86% chance which is unsupported by the supplied profiles