Highlights

• • Anne priced at 1.09 implies ~91.7% win probability
• • Provided player data shows a losing record and recent defeats on hard courts

Pros

• + Clear, large market edge would exist if Anne's true probability were near the market-implied level
• + We have explicit recent-match hard-court results for Anne in the research

Cons

• - Anne's win-loss record (10-22) in the research contradicts the extreme market confidence
• - No data on Carolina Gasparini prevents us from identifying a reason the market would be so heavily skewed

Details

We compared the market price (Anne Schaefer away moneyline 1.09, implied win probability ~91.7%) to a realistic assessment based solely on the provided player data. Anne Schaefer's career record in the dataset is 10-22 (≈31% raw career win rate) and recent match results show losses on hard courts in Challenger-level events. The market is pricing Anne as nearly certain to win, which would require her true win probability to be above ~91.7% to offer value at 1.09. Given the losing overall record and recent defeats on hard surfaces, we estimate her true win probability is far lower (we conservatively estimate 65%). At that estimate the expected value at 1.09 is p*odds - 1 = 0.65*1.09 - 1 = -0.2915 (negative), so there is no value backing Anne at current prices. We also lack any data on Carolina Gasparini in the research, which increases uncertainty and prevents us from assigning a higher probability to either side that would justify betting the long home price (7.0). Therefore we recommend no bet — the market appears overconfident on Anne without supporting evidence in the provided research.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~91.7% chance for Anne Schaefer at 1.09, which is extremely high
• • Anne Schaefer's provided career record is 10-22 and recent form includes hard-court losses
• • No information on Carolina Gasparini in the research increases uncertainty about the matchup