Highlights

• • Lola's career and recent form are weak (10-21, recent losses)
• • Current home price 1.83 is above our fair price (~1.613) for the estimated true probability

Pros

• + Material gap between Lola's low win rate and the implied market probability for the away player
• + Available odds (1.83) provide positive EV at our estimated probability

Cons

• - We lack direct performance data for Caroline Werner in the provided research, increasing model uncertainty
• - Bookmaker margin and a relatively close-looking market suggest outcome uncertainty; our edge may be smaller than estimated

Details

We see clear value backing Caroline Werner at 1.83 given Lola Radivojevic's weak record and form. Radivojevic is 10-21 (≈32% career win rate) with recent losses on both clay and hard, suggesting limited confidence in her winning here. The market's decimals (Home 1.83 implied ≈54.6%, Away 1.93 implied ≈51.8%) reflect a tight market with a bookmaker margin (~6.4% combined). We estimate Caroline's true win probability at 62% based on the contrast between Lola's sub-33% career win rate and the lack of evidence that Lola is a live contender here; that probability implies a fair price of ~1.613, making the available 1.83 a positive expected-value opportunity. At p=0.62 and odds=1.83 EV = 0.62*1.83 - 1 = +0.135 (≈13.5% ROI). We acknowledge limited direct data on Caroline Werner and therefore apply a conservative edge estimate rather than an extreme number.

Key factors

• • Lola Radivojevic career record 10-21 (~32% win rate) and recent losses
• • Market prices imply home ≈54.6% but our assessment values home at ≈62%
• • Limited public data on Caroline increases uncertainty but still favors home given opponent weakness