Caroline Werner vs Lola Radivojevic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend a value bet on the home player Caroline Werner at 2.90 based on Lola's weak record and recent form; the price offers a modest positive EV versus our conservative probability estimate.
Highlights
- • Market heavily favors Lola (1.418) despite a 10-21 career record
- • Home at 2.90 implies 34.5% but our estimate is 37.5%, producing ~8.8% ROI
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current price (EV ≈ 0.088)
- + Market may be overrating Lola given recent form and overall win rate
Cons
- - Very limited data on Caroline Werner increases uncertainty
- - Surface and match-up specifics are not provided and could change the true edge
Details
We find value backing the home player, Caroline Werner, at 2.90. The market prices the away favorite Lola Radivojevic at 1.418 (implied win probability ~70.5%), but Lola's documented career record (10-21, ~32% career win rate) and recent losses indicate form well below that market-implied level. We conservatively estimate Caroline's true win probability at 37.5% (0.375). At that probability the fair decimal price is 1 / 0.375 = 2.667; the current available price of 2.90 offers positive expected value: EV = 0.375 * 2.90 - 1 = 0.0875 (≈0.088). Key uncertainties (sparse public data on Caroline, surface not specified) make this a cautious play, but the odds gap versus our probability estimate provides a small positive edge.
Key factors
- • Lola Radivojevic's poor overall career record (10-21) and recent losses
- • Market-implied probability for Lola (~70.5%) appears high relative to documented form
- • Limited public information on Caroline Werner may have left her price inflated (market inefficiency)