Caroline Werner vs Lola Radivojevic

Highlights

• • Radivojevic's documented career win-rate (~32%) is far below implied market probability for this match.
• • Home at 2.57 offers a positive EV (≈0.169) under our conservative probability estimate.

Pros

• + Clear mismatch between Radivojevic's documented form and market-implied probability.
• + Current home price (2.57) is well above our min required odds (2.198) for a positive expectation.

Cons

• - Very limited or no direct data on Caroline Werner in the provided research increases uncertainty.
• - If Caroline is significantly weaker than assumed, the true probability could be lower and eliminate perceived value.

Details

We view the market price as overstating Lola Radivojevic's chances. The available research shows Radivojevic has a 10-21 career record (31 matches, ~32.3% win rate) with poor recent results, yet the market makes her a clear favorite at decimal 1.521 (implied win probability ~65.7%). With limited data on Caroline Werner but no evidence that she is a heavy underdog in form or surface, the home price of 2.57 (implied 38.9%) looks materially inflated relative to the away player's documented weak form. Using a conservative true-win estimate for Caroline of 45.5%, the home selection yields positive expected value versus the current 2.57 quote. We are confident the market is overpricing Radivojevic based on the provided match-history data, producing value on Caroline despite uncertainty due to limited information on the home player.

Key factors

• • Lola Radivojevic career record 10-21 (~32.3% win rate) across 31 matches
• • Recent match log shows multiple losses in 2025, indicating weak short-term form
• • Market strongly favors Radivojevic at 1.521, implying ~65.7% — appears inconsistent with her documented form